o quarrel with the proposition that Darcy's knowledge of Jane was superficial. He probably was in company with her as frequently as Bingley but obviously would have had little one-on-one contact with her. As well, he admits that he did not tig to Bingley's interest in Jane until the Netherfield Ball so his real assessment was based on watching her in company with Bingley that evening. I suspect, as most of us do, he had prejudged the matter based on his previous opinion of her and saw nothing to change it.
Even Charlotte Collins however, who knew Jane quite well, could not see in Jane's manner that she held Bingley in strong affection. It is easy to blame Darcy but even Elizabeth acknowledged eventually that her sister did not advance her cause.
Having said that, I think Darcy's advice was too emphatic and that is where his arrogance comes in. BUT he is used to making judgements and his advice has been good enough in the past that Bingley held it in great esteem. He made a mistake here - one that IMO derives mostly from arrogance.